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Sectarianism
Decommissioning
Policing
Prisoners
National Question
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The Northern Ireland peace talks resume in the New Year --
with less prospect than ever of producing a real solution to the
problem.
Three years ago, when the IRA and then the loyalists declared
their ceasefires, there was a groundswell of opinion in both
Protestant and Catholic areas for peace. This opening of the
peace process came after a huge united movement of the working
class against sectarian atrocities and demanding an end to the
paramilitary campaigns.
The Northern Ireland peace talks resume in the New Year -- with
less prospect than ever of producing a real solution to the
problem.
Three years ago, when the IRA and then the loyalists declared
their ceasefires, there was a groundswell of opinion in both
Protestant and Catholic areas for peace. This opening of the
peace process came after a huge united movement of the working
class against sectarian atrocities and demanding an end to the
paramilitary campaigns.
The 1994 ceasefire found the IRA on the backfoot, the military
campaign having achieved only a stalemate and without any clear
alternative strategy other than the building of a nationalist
alliance, in Ireland and internationally, to persuade
the Protestants. The mood in Catholic and in Protestant areas was
for compromise and reconciliation.
Even then, left in the hands of right wing and sectarian parties,
the peace process would never have led to a stable and lasting
settlement. But the momentum for peace allowed that there could
be an interlude in the Troubles during which working class people
would have had an opportunity to come together at workplace and
community level and a class alternative to sectarian politics
could have emerged.
The intransigence of the Tory government and of the major local
parties meant that talks never got off the ground and the
momentum for peace was lost.
The current talks take place against a very different background.
The ongoing controversy over parades, especially what happened at
Drumcree last year and this, has left Northern Ireland more
bitterly and dangerously polarised than at any previous time.
Whatever else this new peace process is about it is
certainly not about reconciliation.
Sinn Fein have taken their seats at the talks, not on the tail of
an exhausted military campaign, but as part of an offensive
movement and on the back of what they see as a victory won by
Catholic people power over the Orange Order on July
12. Expectations in Catholic areas have been raised that the
talks will end all aspects of discrimination and repression and
that the result will be a significant dent in the Union and a
step towards a United Ireland.
The friends and allies being courted by Adams and McGuinness in
the White House and among the political establishment in the
South will pressurise Sinn Fein to accept less, but the pressure
from within the Catholic community and from republican hardliners
who have made their mark over the parades issue will be against
anything they would see as a "sell out".
The Ulster Unionists are sitting down with Sinn Fein but with the
opposite agenda of preserving the Union. While Paisley has set
out to wreck the talks in order to preserve the status quo the
Ulster Unionists understand that without change the status quo
will not hold. Their aim is to offer concessions on equality in
return for an internal settlement and a new local Assembly to
which Sinn Fein would be expected to give their allegiance.
Protestant attitudes too have hardened and suspicions have risen
that the talks now have a much more republican
agenda. The Orange Orders decision to cancel parades
in disputed areas did not show a new spirit of accommodation, but
an acceptance of territorial division and a drawing back by
Protestants into their own community. With this mood on the one
side and a more strident nationalism on the other he likelihood
of the talks coming up with anything is slender.
They could falter on Unionist insistence on decommissioning. Or
issues such as policing could bring a complete deadlock. Despite
the hurdles to be surmounted it isnt entirely ruled out
that some overall package might eventually be agreed. Or it is
possible that a part agreed part disputed package might be
imposed by the two governments. What is ruled out is that either
of these outcomes would be a solution or that any new structures
which may be established would be permanent.
Behind the cover of the peace process and the talks,
the real process on the ground over the last year and more has
been a process of division along sectarian lines. If sectarian
organisations, republican and loyalist, maintain their current
grip in working class communities this repartition
process will continue whatever happens at the talks.
The voices arguing for a return to the paramilitary campaigns are
now quite isolated. However with groups like the INLA in
existence, with the Continuity IRA threatening to bomb Britain
into the third world and with the LVF operating as
the unofficial paramilitary shadow of the DUP and picking up
dissident UVF and UDA members. Even if all these groups remain
small, the situation is more volatile and less predictable than
ever.
What has happened is a serious setback to the working class
movement and to working class people generally. And what may
happen could be much worse. Throughout the Troubles there was
never any possibility of a solution on the basis of the present
economic system. Now, as the sectarian divide has deepened the
basis for even a temporary accommodation has become narrowed.
Protestants will never accept a capitalist united Ireland. The
Southern State has no attraction to them.Instead they fear that,
as a minority, they would suffer discrimination and ill treatment
- and the rise of the assertive nationalism of Sinn Fein has only
confirmed their fears. Catholics, especially working class
Catholics who face unrelieved poverty and unemployment, are now
less prepared to accept the status quo.
A real solution means bridging the divide which separates
Protestant and Catholic workers, not institutalising it through
some form of power sharing. It means answering the fears of
Catholics and Protestants of discrimination and of the trampling
of rights and culture. It means offering economic security by
providing decent jobs, decent services and facilities.
It is only the working class which can achieve this. Despite all
that has happened the real common interests of working class
people are far greater and stronger than the sectarian ties which
separate them.
Unity already exists in the workplaces and in workplace union
organisation. Some community organisations which are genuinely
cross community have held together. It is by building on this
unity at the bottom, not by relying on the politicians at the
top, that the basis for a solution can be found.
A parallel peace process involving rank and file trade union
bodies, community groups, women's groups, youth groups and other
organisation with roots in working class communities is now
needed. A Peoples Forum involving such groups would
be far more capable of coming up with a solution that the
politicians with their sectarian vested interests at Stormont.
The national problem can be resolved but only if the starting
point is social change -- not just changing the location of a
border or colour of a flag. A movement whose goal is the ending
of poverty, unemployment and exploitation could unite Catholic
and Protestant workers in the North and could unite workers
North, South and in Britain.
A socialist Ireland as a voluntary part of a socialist federation
of Britain and Ireland is the one answer to the national conflict
which could win the consent of both working class communities in
the North and which would involve the coercion of neither
community.The alternative is to continue along the present course
towards repartition and a Bosnia style settlement.
Those arguing against this and for class unity have been
temporarily isolated by the upsurge of sectarianism of recent
years. However there are many individuals, Catholic and
Protestant, who are repelled by what is taking place and who see
the dangers.
By building a socialist alternative which can attract these
people -- even if it is on a small scale for the time being --
the Socialist Party is laying the base for a future mass
socialist organisation capable of challenging and defeating
sectarianism.
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